The Role of Pitch Sequencing in Jacob deGrom’s Success Against Top Hitters

Jacob deGrom has redefined pitching dominance in the modern era of Major League Baseball, posting numbers that place him among the all-time greats. His ability to neutralize the best hitters game after game is not solely a product of his elite velocity or devastating breaking pitches. Instead, the hallmark of his success lies in his masterful pitch sequencing — the deliberate ordering and mixing of pitches to exploit batter weaknesses, disrupt timing, and maximize deception. This article breaks down the mechanics, strategies, and data behind deGrom’s sequencing, providing a deep dive into how he consistently dominates top-tier competition.

Deconstructing Pitch Sequencing

Pitch sequencing is far more than randomly calling fastballs, sliders, and changeups. It is a strategic and often predictive process of choosing the next pitch based on the count, the batter’s historical tendencies, the pitcher’s own arsenal strengths, and the game situation. At its core, sequencing aims to create doubt in the hitter’s mind—forcing them to guess and swing at pitches they cannot square up. Against elite hitters, who can adjust mid-at-bat and have exceptional hand-eye coordination, sequencing becomes a critical layer of defense.

The concept has evolved significantly over the last decade, fueled by advanced analytics and high-speed camera data. Today, pitchers and coaches analyze tunneling (the art of making different pitches look identical out of the hand for as long as possible), chase rates in specific counts, and the interaction between pitch movement and batter swing decisions. deGrom is a master of these principles.

The Core Principles of Sequencing

  • Deception Through Tunneling: deGrom’s fastball, slider, and changeup all share a similar release point and initial trajectory. This makes it nearly impossible for hitters to identify the pitch type in the first 15–20 feet of flight. He uses sequencing to ensure batters cannot sit on one pitch.
  • Count Leverage: He systematically works counts to get ahead (first-pitch strike) and then exploits hitters’ need to protect the plate in two-strike counts with pitches that miss the barrel.
  • Batter Tendency Analysis: deGrom studies each hitter’s swing patterns—where they struggle to cover (up, down, in, out) and what they are likely to chase out of the zone. He then sequences to funnel the batter into those weak zones.

Jacob deGrom’s Arsenal: The Tools for Sequencing

To appreciate deGrom’s sequencing, one must first understand the quality and dimensions of his individual pitches. Each pitch is elite by itself, but their combination creates a web of deception.

Fastball (Four-Seamer)

deGrom’s four-seam fastball averages around 99 mph and has high spin rate (around 2500 rpm on average), which creates late rising action and makes it appear to jump through the zone that hitters cannot square up. Its vertical approach angle is steeper than average, further challenging hitters’ timing. Even when batters know a fastball is coming, the combination of velocity and life makes it extremely difficult to barrel. He typically throws it around 50% of the time, but the percentage changes based on the batter and count. In critical two-strike counts, he will elevate the fastball above the zone, knowing that hitters expand their strike zone and often swing over it.

Slider

Arguably the most devastating pitch in baseball during his peak seasons, deGrom’s slider sits in the 89–93 mph range with sharp horizontal and vertical break. It has a whiff rate often exceeding 55% when thrown in the zone or just off the edges. He uses the slider as his primary put-away pitch—especially against right-handed hitters who struggle with the pitch tunneling off the fastball. The slider mimics the fastball line for the first 10–15 feet, then darts down and away (or down and in to lefties). deGrom can also back-foot the slider to lefties, a sequence where he starts it at the hitter’s front hip and watches it break over the inside corner.

Changeup

deGrom’s changeup is an elite weapon against left-handed hitters. It sits around 91–93 mph, with significant tumble and fade. Against lefties, he uses it to offset his fastball and slider, generating weak contact and swings-and-misses. The changeup has a high whiff rate because it looks identical to his fastball but arrives slower with drop, causing hitters to swing over the top. He often starts lefties with a changeup away, then returns to it in two-strike counts to induce a chase low and outside.

Curveball (Occasional)

While less frequently used, deGrom has also employed a curveball in recent seasons, adding another layer of sequencing depth. The curveball gives him a pitch with vertical drop and slower velocity (~82–84 mph) that can be used early in counts to disrupt timing or as a show-me pitch to prevent hitters from sitting on his primary trio. In his 2021 season, he threw the curve about 5% of the time, mostly against right-handed hitters to steal a strike or freeze them with a slow hook on 2-2.

Sequencing Strategies Against Top Hitters

deGrom adapts his sequencing approach based on the hitter’s handedness, swing path, and history. The following are key strategies he employs to keep elite hitters off balance.

First-Pitch Strike Dominance

deGrom is one of the best in baseball at getting ahead in the count. He throws first-pitch strikes at an elite rate (around 67–70% in his best seasons). His first-pitch choices vary: against right-handed batters, he often starts with a four-seam fastball over the heart of the plate or on the outer half. The goal is to establish the fastball early, forcing the hitter to respect the velocity. Against lefties, he may start with a front-door fastball over the inner half or a changeup away to test their patience. Once ahead, he becomes almost unapproachable. When he falls behind 2-0 or 3-1, he often goes to his slider or changeup to induce weak contact or a chase, rather than grooving a fastball.

Two-Strike Sequences: The Putaway

With two strikes, deGrom shifts into attack mode. He frequently tunnels a fastball up in the zone followed by a low slider (or vice versa) — a sequence that exploits the hitter’s natural tendency to try to cover both locations. The two-strike slider down and away is his signature strikeout pitch. Another effective two-strike pattern is fastball high, changeup low. This north-south manipulation is extremely hard on hitters, especially those with steep swing planes. According to data from Baseball Savant, deGrom’s strikeout rate on 0-2 counts is among the highest in MLB history, with over 60% of those at-bats ending in a K.

Working Backwards

To prevent elite hitters from timing his fastball, deGrom often starts a count with a breaking ball or changeup. For example, he might throw a first-pitch slider to a right-handed hitter who expects a fastball. This "working backwards" approach disrupts the hitter’s rhythm and forces them to think about multiple pitch types from the very start. He then can double up on sliders or mix in a fastball when the hitter is looking off-speed. This cat-and-mouse game is a hallmark of his sequencing brilliance.

Reading Batter Tilt Patterns

deGrom is known for his intense preparation and ability to read hitters’ body language and swing adjustments. During games, he and his catchers modify sequencing based on how the hitter has reacted to previous pitches. For instance, if a hitter consistently swings early in the count or seems to be cheating to pull the fastball, deGrom will feed them soft stuff away. If a hitter is too passive, he will pound the zone with fastballs and sliders on the edges. This real-time adaptation is what separates him from many pitchers who rely on a pre-set game plan. Catcher James McCann has noted in interviews that deGrom often suggests sequences mid-game based on subtle cues like a hitter leaning or his bat angle.

Specific Batter Matchups

deGrom’s sequencing shines brightest against the game’s elite. For example, against Freddie Freeman, a left-handed hitter who excels at hitting fastballs, deGrom frequently starts with a changeup away or a back-foot slider. He then mixes in high fastballs and low changeups, keeping Freeman from centering his weight. Against right-handed power hitters like Bryce Harper, deGrom leans heavily on the slider down and away, sometimes following a fastball in. In their head-to-head matchups, Harper has gone only 4-for-26 with 13 strikeouts against deGrom. Against Mike Trout (16 at-bats, 7 strikeouts, .125 average), deGrom’s sequencing has been especially effective: he tunnels fastballs up and sliders down, never allowing Trout to time his swing.

The Statistics Behind the Success

Data from Baseball Savant and FanGraphs illustrates just how effective deGrom’s sequencing truly is. In his 2021 season, he posted a 1.08 ERA with a 0.55 WHIP—numbers that are practically video game levels. More telling are the peripherals:

  • K/9: 13.8 (career high; consistently above 11 K/9)
  • Swinging Strike %: 20.2% in 2021 — the highest ever recorded for a qualified starter
  • Chase Rate: Over 33% in his prime seasons, well above league average
  • Barrel % allowed: Often below 3% (league average is around 6–7%)
  • Expected wOBA (xwOBA) consistently among the top 1% of pitchers
  • First-pitch strike %: Over 67% in 2021, with an average of 68% from 2018-2021
  • Whiff rate on slider: 58% in 2021, highest among all pitchers for any pitch with over 100 swings

The effectiveness of his sequencing shows in the count splits. When ahead in the count (0–2, 1–2), deGrom’s opponents hit under .100 with sky-high strikeout rates. When behind (2–0, 3–0), he still manages to limit damage because hitters cannot sit on any one pitch type due to his mix. According to research by MLB.com, deGrom’s sequencing leads to higher whiff rates and lower hard-hit rates than would be expected from his individual pitch qualities alone. That is the hallmark of sequencing — the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.

Furthermore, a study by Baseball Prospectus shows that deGrom’s sequencing efficiency—measured by how often his second pitch creates a worse outcome for the batter compared to the first—ranks in the 99th percentile. He rarely throws two pitches in the same location in a row, and he varies the sequence based on whether the previous pitch was taken or swung at. This dynamic adjustment is rare even among aces.

Comparison to Other Elite Pitchers

While pitchers like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Gerrit Cole also rely on sequencing, deGrom’s approach is distinct in its reliance on extreme tunneling and the sheer magnitude of his pitch movement. Scherzer uses a more aggressive, high-fastball/changeup sequence; Verlander leans heavily on his fastball/curveball mix. Cole uses a four-seamer/sweeper combination. deGrom, however, combines a high-spin fastball, a late-breaking slider, and a changeup that mirror each other’s release more than almost any other pitcher. This creates a level of deception that allows him to sequence with less reliance on raw velocity differential.

A FanGraphs analysis noted that deGrom’s sequencing is particularly effective because he changes his pitch mix based on the count and opposing hitter more aggressively than most. He does not simply repeat patterns; he creates different sequences that leave hitters guessing. Another external source, Sports Illustrated, highlighted how deGrom’s ability to throw any pitch in any count makes him nearly unreadable. In contrast, pitchers like Chris Sale rely heavily on their slider to righties and changeup to lefties, making their sequencing more predictable in certain counts.

Additionally, an analysis by The Athletic compared deGrom’s sequencing to a chess grandmaster: he thinks three moves ahead, setting up hitters with early-count pitches that make later ones more effective. For instance, he might throw a first-pitch fastball down the middle, knowing the hitter will take it for a strike, then later throw a changeup in the same tunnel that drops out of the zone for a swing-and-miss. This long-game approach is rarely seen even among elite arms.

Limitations and Adjustments

No pitcher is perfect. deGrom’s heavy reliance on his fastball-slider-changeup mix means that when his fastball velocity dips, or his slider lacks its sharp bite, his sequencing loses some of its edge. Additionally, elite hitters who make adjustments over multiple at-bats can sometimes spoil pitches and force him into deeper counts. But deGrom’s athleticism and pitchability allow him to pivot mid-game—perhaps using his curveball more or altering his sequencing to focus on weak contact rather than strikeouts. His 2022 and 2023 seasons saw him dealing with injuries, but when healthy, his sequencing remains the gold standard. In 2024 with the Texas Rangers, he has shown that even after multiple arm surgeries, his pitch sequencing intelligence remains intact, adapting to lower velocity by relying more on tunneling and changeups.

Injury Adaptations

After returning from Tommy John surgery in 2024, deGrom saw his fastball velocity drop to around 96-97 mph instead of 99-100. However, his sequencing became even more important. He increased his changeup usage to over 25% and began mixing in more curveballs early in counts. He also worked backwards more frequently, starting left-handed batters with changeups and righties with sliders. This adaptation demonstrates that sequencing is not dependent on raw power but on strategy and execution. Even with reduced velocity, his swinging strike rate remains above 15% in 2024 through his first few starts.

Conclusion

Jacob deGrom’s success against top hitters is not accidental. It is the result of meticulous planning, elite execution, and a deep understanding of pitch sequencing. By mixing a dominant fastball, a bat-missing slider, and a deceptive changeup in unpredictable and strategic patterns, he forces the best hitters in baseball to become reactive rather than aggressive. His ability to read batters’ tendencies, leverage count advantages, and tunnel pitches effectively has made him a once-in-a-generation pitcher. For any aspiring pitcher or fan of the game, studying deGrom’s sequencing offers a masterclass in how to dominate the mound through intelligence as much as power. The data backs it up: his whiff rates, barrel prevention, and strikeout numbers are not just products of raw stuff but of how he orchestrates his pitches in a sequence that leaves hitters guessing from the first pitch to the last.