The MLB Draft: How Position Shapes Perceptions and Opportunities

The annual MLB First-Year Player Draft is a complex talent acquisition system where teams select amateur players from high schools, colleges, and other amateur programs. Draft position carries significant weight in shaping initial expectations, signing bonuses, and the level of organizational investment. For decades, the conventional wisdom held that the earlier a player is selected, the higher his ceiling and likelihood of success. However, a deeper examination of MLB draft history reveals a more nuanced reality. While top-10 picks statistically produce more All-Stars and franchise cornerstones, the draft is also notorious for its high bust rate and for overlooking late-round gems.

Teams spend millions on scouting and analytics, yet the draft remains an inexact science. Pitchers, in particular, are notoriously unpredictable; arm injuries, mechanical breakdowns, and mental struggles can derail even the most polished first-round prospects. Conversely, players selected in later rounds often face steeper odds: smaller signing bonuses, less coaching attention, and fewer opportunities to advance through the minor leagues. Jacob deGrom's career trajectory is a vivid counterpoint to these barriers.

The Numbers Behind Draft Pick Success

Data from major league draft analyses consistently show that the probability of a player reaching the majors increases dramatically for early-round picks. According to research by FanGraphs, about 67% of first-round picks eventually play in MLB, but that figure drops to roughly 37% for second-rounders and plummets to around 10% for ninth-round selections. Furthermore, the chance of becoming an above-average regular or star—measured by Wins Above Replacement (WAR)—is heavily tilted toward the top of the draft. DeGrom, selected in the ninth round (272nd overall), defied these odds in spectacular fashion, producing a career that rivals any pitcher taken in the first round during his draft class.

Another telling statistic: of all ninth-round picks from 2000 to 2015, only a handful accrued even 10 career WAR. DeGrom sits at over 45 WAR through 2024, placing him in the 99th percentile for his draft slot. This stark contrast underscores the unpredictability of player development and the danger of writing off prospects based solely on draft position.

Jacob deGrom’s Draft and Development

Born in DeLand, Florida, deGrom attended Stetson University, a mid-major program not typically known for producing top prospects. As a college pitcher, he was a late bloomer; he began his college career as a shortstop before transitioning to the mound. His fastball sat in the high 80s to low 90s during his junior year, and his overall scouting report was unremarkable. MLB teams saw a projectable frame but questioned his command and secondary pitches. As a result, the New York Mets selected him in the ninth round of the 2010 MLB Draft—a pick that, at the time, generated little excitement.

Pre-Draft Evaluations and the 9th Round Selection

Scouting reports from 2010 described deGrom as a "fringy" prospect with average stuff. His fastball velocity was just 89–92 mph, his slider was inconsistent, and his changeup was raw. The Mets' area scout, though, saw something intangible: a smooth delivery, athleticism, and a relentless work ethic. "He had a good feel for pitching and a willingness to get better," said Mets scouting director at the time. "We didn't think he'd be a superstar, but we thought he could be a back-end starter or a reliever." That evaluation proved dramatically conservative. What the Mets couldn't predict was how deGrom's body and arsenal would evolve once he entered professional baseball.

Rapid Ascent Through the Minor Leagues

DeGrom's minor league journey was swift but not meteoric. He began 2011 in Low-A Savannah, where he posted a 3.19 ERA over 14 starts, striking out 73 batters in 79 innings. His velocity ticked up to the low 90s, and his slider sharpened. In 2012, he moved to High-A St. Lucie and then Double-A Binghamton, compiling a combined 2.51 ERA and a 9.5 K/9 rate. By 2013, deGrom was at Triple-A Las Vegas, a notoriously hitter-friendly environment, yet he still posted a respectable 4.80 ERA with 109 strikeouts in 116.1 innings. His fastball had climbed to 93–95 mph, and his command improved dramatically. The Mets, in need of starting pitching depth, gave him a spring training invite in 2014, and he won the fifth starter job out of camp.

Breaking into the Majors and Initial Performance

Jacob deGrom made his MLB debut on May 15, 2014, against the New York Yankees. He allowed just one run over six innings, striking out seven. It was a sign of things to come. Over the remainder of the 2014 season, deGrom posted a 2.69 ERA with 144 strikeouts in 140.1 innings, earning him the National League Rookie of the Year award—an honor rarely bestowed on ninth-round picks. His success was built on a devastating fastball that now regularly touched 97 mph, a sharp slider, and a changeup that baffled hitters. The Mets had a rotation ace in the making, and the baseball world began to take notice.

The 2014 Rookie Campaign

DeGrom's rookie season was historic in several respects. He set a Mets franchise record for strikeouts by a rookie and was the first pitcher since 1976 to record seven or more strikeouts in each of his first 10 starts. His 2.69 ERA was the lowest among NL rookies that season, and his 144 strikeouts were the most by a Mets rookie since Dwight Gooden. Yet, because of his unheralded draft status, the national media was slow to recognize his dominance. "Honestly, I didn't know much about him before he got called up," said veteran catcher Travis d'Arnaud at the time. "But once I caught him, I knew he was special."

Peak Performance and Cy Young Awards

DeGrom's ascent continued in the following years, but his true breakout came in 2018 and 2019, when he won back-to-back National League Cy Young Awards. During those two seasons, he established himself as arguably the most dominant pitcher in baseball, posting numbers that rivaled the greats of the modern era.

2018: The Breakout Season

In 2018, deGrom went 10-9 with a 1.70 ERA over 217 innings, striking out 269 batters while walking only 46. His 1.70 ERA was the lowest in the National League since Clayton Kershaw in 2014, and his 1.98 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) indicated his performance was no fluke. Despite a low win-loss record due to anemic run support, he won the Cy Young Award unanimously, becoming the first pitcher since 2002 to win the award with a losing record. This season was a masterclass in pitching: overpowering fastball (average 95.6 mph), elite command, and a near-untouchable slider that generated a .141 batting average against.

2019: Back-to-Back Cy Young

In 2019, deGrom was even better in some respects. He posted a 2.43 ERA over 204 innings, with 255 strikeouts and just 44 walks. His 11.3 K/9 and 5.8 K/BB ratio were career highs. He pitched to a 0.971 WHIP and held opponents to a .207 batting average. For the second straight year, he was a unanimous Cy Young winner, joining a select group of pitchers who have achieved back-to-back unanimous Cy Youngs—a list that includes only Sandy Koufax, Greg Maddux, and Randy Johnson. It was a remarkable feat for a player who, just a decade earlier, was toiling in A-ball as a little-known ninth-round pick.

Injuries and Later Career

Peak performance came with a cost: injuries. DeGrom missed time in 2020 with a hamstring issue, and in 2021 he was limited to 15 starts due to forearm tightness and a shoulder issue. Nevertheless, when healthy, he remained elite, posting a 1.08 ERA in 2021 before succumbing to injury. In 2022, a stress reaction in his scapula ended his season after just 64.1 innings, and in 2023, after signing a five-year, $185 million contract with the Texas Rangers, he made only six starts before undergoing Tommy John surgery for the second time in his career. These injuries have clouded his later career, but they do not diminish the historical impact of his peak years.

The Impact of Draft Position on Career Trajectory

Jacob deGrom's career serves as a powerful case study for how draft position can—and does not—determine a player's ultimate ceiling. While his late selection might have limited his initial exposure and bonus, it likely also insulated him from the intense pressure that accompanies top picks. With less organizational scrutiny and more time to develop, deGrom was able to refine his mechanics and add velocity without the burden of premature expectations. However, his path also highlights the systemic bias in baseball: had he been a first-round pick, he might have received more advanced training earlier, potentially accelerating his development even further.

Comparing with Top Picks

To fully appreciate deGrom's achievement, consider his draft class of 2010. The first overall pick was Bryce Harper, a generational talent, but among pitchers selected in the first round that year, names like Jameson Taillon (2nd overall), Chris Sale (13th overall), and Matt Harvey (7th overall) stand out. Harvey, selected by the Mets in the same draft, was the "can't-miss" prospect, while deGrom was an afterthought. Yet deGrom's career WAR (over 45) surpasses every pitcher from that first round except Chris Sale (who is around 55 WAR but with more injury issues). This disparity underscores the draft's inherent unpredictability, especially for pitchers.

Another comparison: the highest-paid pitchers in baseball history—Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander—were all top draft picks (Cole 1st overall, Scherzer 11th overall, Verlander 2nd overall). DeGrom, by contrast, earned far less in his early years due to draft position, but his performance forced the Mets to pay him market value. His story is a reminder that talent can emerge at any draft slot, and that teams who are flexible in their evaluation approach can find stars outside the top rounds.

Lessons for Scouts and Teams

The deGrom story has reshaped how some organizations evaluate pitchers. It teaches that mechanical projection, athleticism, and work ethic can be more important than present stuff. The MLB's own retrospective on his journey notes that the Mets' willingness to let deGrom develop at his own pace, along with his relentless drive, were as critical as any scouting report. For teams, the lesson is clear: invest in player development across all draft rounds, and never dismiss a prospect solely because of draft position. For scouts, it's a call to look beyond numbers and see the potential for growth.

Expanding the Narrative: Development Systems and Late-Round Success

Beyond deGrom's individual story, his career highlights broader structural factors that influence draft outcomes. The Mets’ minor league system in the early 2010s emphasized mechanical efficiency and strength conditioning, allowing deGrom to add velocity naturally. Many late-round picks never receive such dedicated development resources. Teams with strong player development pipelines, such as the Tampa Bay Rays or Los Angeles Dodgers, have consistently unearthed talent in later rounds. DeGrom’s ascent underscores the value of investing in coaching, analytics, and recovery technology—tools that can transform a raw ninth-rounder into a perennial Cy Young contender.

The Role of Scouting and Analytics

Traditional scouting often misses potential in players like deGrom because they lack flashy college stats or elite tools. Modern analytics, however, can identify subtle indicators such as spin rate, release point consistency, and movement profiles. DeGrom’s high spin rate on his fastball and slider, combined with a deceptive delivery, were harbingers of future success that weren’t fully appreciated in 2010. Today, teams use TrackMan and Edgertronic cameras to find similar diamonds in the rough. Yet even with advanced data, the human element remains vital. The Mets’ area scout who championed deGrom trusted his eyes over the numbers. That blend of art and science is where draft magic often happens.

Conclusion: Defying Expectations

Jacob deGrom's career trajectory from a ninth-round afterthought to a two-time Cy Young Award winner is one of the most inspiring stories in modern baseball. It demonstrates that draft position, while influential in setting initial expectations, is not a definitive predictor of success. Hard work, physical maturation, and organizational support can allow talent to flourish regardless of where a player is selected. DeGrom's legacy extends beyond his stats: he is living proof that the draft is not an end point but a starting line, and that the most valuable assets in baseball are the ones that continue to develop long after their names are called.

For aspiring players, his story offers a powerful message: don't let where you are drafted define your future. For teams, it's a reminder to keep an open mind. The next Jacob deGrom might be taken in the 15th round next year, and the smart organizations will be ready to invest in his potential.

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