Early Career and Cy Young Dominance (2014–2019)

Jacob deGrom made his MLB debut with the New York Mets in 2014 and quickly established himself as one of the most electric arms in the game. His rookie season earned him National League Rookie of the Year honors, but it was his 2015 campaign that announced his arrival as a true ace. Over the next several years deGrom posted staggering numbers: a 2015 WHIP of 0.979, a 2.16 ERA in 2016, and back-to-back Cy Young Awards in 2018 and 2019. In 2018 he led the league with a 1.70 ERA while his team scored just 3.5 runs per game, a feat that underscored his ability to dominate even with no margin for error. His 2019 season saw him lead the NL in strikeouts (255) and strikeouts per nine innings (11.3). By this point deGrom’s fastball regularly sat at 97–99 mph, his slider was virtually unhittable, and his changeup was a devastating third pitch. He was the undisputed centerpiece of the Mets and arguably the best pitcher on the planet.

Yet even during these peak years, persistent whispers of durability concerns began to surface. In 2016 deGrom missed time with a neck injury, and in 2017 he dealt with forearm and finger issues that cost him starts. These early red flags were often dismissed as minor because when deGrom pitched, he pitched at an unassailable level. The narrative changed significantly after the 2019 season.

The Injury Timeline: A Detailed Breakdown

2020–2021: The Forearm and Elbow Alert

During the pandemic-shortened 2020 season deGrom made 12 starts and looked as sharp as ever, posting a 2.38 ERA with 104 strikeouts in 68 innings. However, he twice landed on the injured list, first with a minor back issue and then with right lat inflammation. The lat strain was especially concerning because it indicated potential compensation issues from his lower body. In 2021 the trouble became impossible to ignore. On June 11, 2021, deGrom left a start against the Padres with right forearm tightness. An MRI revealed no structural damage, but the incident spooked the organization. He was shut down for nearly eight weeks. Upon returning in September he made three starts, but his velocity had dropped from its typical 99–100 mph to the mid-90s. He was eventually shut down for the season after being diagnosed with a torn UCL. He opted for conservative treatment rather than Tommy John surgery, a decision that would have long-lasting implications.

2022: The Stress Reaction and Final Mets Collapse

The 2022 season was supposed to be deGrom’s vindication. He rehabbed through the first two months and made his debut on June 2. For a month he was vintage deGrom: a 1.08 ERA in his first six starts with an absurd 56 strikeouts and just three walks. But on July 6 he complained of right shoulder tightness after a start against the Reds. The diagnosis was a stress reaction in his right scapula, a bone not typically involved in pitching injuries. He missed another two months. When he returned in September the Mets were in a pennant race, but deGrom struggled with diminished stuff. In his final start of the regular season he gave up four runs in five innings to the Nationals. The Mets were eliminated in the wild-card round. Days later deGrom announced he would opt out of his contract and test free agency, a decision driven both by his desire for a fresh start and his awareness that the Mets were unwilling to guarantee the kind of long-term deal his talent otherwise commanded.

2023: Tommy John Surgery and Texas Arrival

The Texas Rangers signed deGrom to a five-year, $185 million contract in December 2022, a deal that included a lower base salary and significant incentives tied to innings. The Rangers were betting that deGrom’s talent, even at age 34, was worth the risk. For the first two months of 2023 the bet looked wise. Through six starts deGrom had a 2.68 ERA with 58 strikeouts in 30.1 innings. But on April 23 his fastball velocity sat at 95 mph, well below his norm. He complained of elbow soreness after the start. An MRI showed a tear in his UCL, and on June 6 he succumbed to the inevitable: Tommy John surgery, his first. The procedure ended his season and put his 2024 campaign in doubt. He has not pitched in a major league game since that April 23 start.

DeGrom’s raw numbers when healthy remain breathtaking. From 2017 through 2021, he posted a 1.94 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP while striking out 38.4% of batters faced. No pitcher in that span had a lower ERA or allowed a lower batting average (.188). His average fastball velocity in his Cy Young years exceeded 98 mph, and his slider whiff rate consistently hovered above 50%. However, since 2020 the trend lines have been stark: his innings per season dropped from 217.2 in 2015 to just 30.1 in 2023. In his last three full seasons combined (2020–2022) he made only 36 starts. For a pitcher of his caliber to miss nearly 60% of possible starts is an immense burden on a team’s rotation.

When deGrom has pitched, his performance has generally remained elite—but with a caveat. His pitch velocity in games following short IL stints often dipped by 1–2 mph, and his command became inconsistent. In 2021 his home run per nine innings rate rose to 1.18, a career high at the time, and his strand rate dropped. These subtle shifts might reflect the toll that repeated injuries take on a pitcher’s mechanics and confidence. A FanGraphs analysis of deGrom’s 2022 season noted that after his second IL stint his average horizontal break on his slider decreased by 1.5 inches, allowing hitters to make more contact.

Impact on Team Value

Contract Implications and Salary Structure

DeGrom’s injury history directly shaped his contract value. In early 2019, fresh off his first Cy Young, he signed a five-year, $137.5 million extension that included a full no-trade clause and opt-out after 2022. At the time it was the largest AAV for a pitcher in MLB history ($27.5 million). But the Mets structured the deal to include a $3.2 million buyout on his 2024 option if he missed significant time due to injury, a clause that became relevant after his 2021 shutdown. When deGrom opted out in 2022, he was betting that a healthy 2023 would net him even more money, but his injury-plagued 2022 season forced the Rangers to include performance bonuses and an early opt-out clause in his 2023 contract. The Rangers effectively paid deGrom $185 million but with a lower guarantee: his base salary was $30 million per season, but the deal also contains $3.5 million in annual incentives that pay out only if he makes 23 or more starts. In essence, the Rangers are paying for deGrom’s upside while hedging against his history of missing games.

Insurance and Payroll Burden

For a front office, a pitcher with deGrom’s injury record forces unusual financial planning. Teams purchase insurance policies on large contracts, but those policies become prohibitively expensive for players with known, repetitive injuries. According to a 2023 MLB Network report, the Rangers carried an insurance policy that covered 75% of deGrom’s salary if he missed more than 90 days, but the premium was reportedly higher than typical for a pitcher of his age and history. That cost is effectively levied against the team’s overall payroll flexibility. Furthermore, when deGrom is on the injured list the Rangers are still required to pay his full salary (minus any insurance recovery), tying up resources that could be used to sign free agents or extend homegrown talent.

Trade Value and Asset Management

Because deGrom’s health is so unpredictable, his trade value has been virtually nonexistent since 2021. A team acquiring him would inherit not only his contract but also the risk that he might never pitch again at an elite level. This reality has effectively made deGrom untradeable unless the Rangers were willing to absorb a large portion of his salary—an unlikely scenario given that they have built their rotation around him and need at least some return. The same dynamic played out in New York: after 2021 the Mets dangled deGrom in trade discussions only to find little interest unless they included massive cash considerations. In effect, deGrom’s injury history has tied his team’s hands, forcing them to either maximize his value when he is healthy or accept that he may be a sunk cost.

Psychological Toll and Risk Management

DeGrom’s injury saga also affects the team’s culture and preparation. Every time he takes the mound, fans and staff hold their collective breath. His starts have devolved into high-stakes events where a single pitch could produce the report of an elbow pop. This environment places additional pressure on the bullpen, which must be ready to cover five or six innings if deGrom exits early. The Mets managed this by carrying an extra long reliever in 2022, effectively sacrificing a lineup slot to patch the rotation. The Rangers have done the same in 2023, maintaining a deep bullpen that can absorb innings. These tactical adjustments reduce a team’s overall flexibility. A 2022 ESPN article noted that the Mets' front office had to “build contingency plans around deGrom’s fragility,” including keeping top prospects on standby as trade chips for starting pitching depth. In a salary-capped sport, those backup options come at the expense of other upgrades.

Beyond the roster, deGrom’s repeated injuries have a psychological effect on his teammates. Several Mets pitchers mentioned in interviews that the constant uncertainty around deGrom’s health created a sense of instability. When deGrom is out, the rotation misses not only his performance but also the swagger he brings to the clubhouse. When he returns with diminished stuff, the team has to manage expectations about what he can provide. The Rangers have tried to insulate deGrom by encouraging him to speak openly about his rehab and by limiting his media obligations, but the spotlight remains intense.

Future Outlook and Risk-Reward Calculation

At age 35 (as of 2024), deGrom is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery. The typical recovery timeline for a pitcher his age is 14–16 months, meaning he could return in mid-2025 at the earliest. History suggests that even for elite pitchers, the return from a second major elbow procedure carries a high risk of decreased performance and reinjury. According to a study by The Athletic, pitchers over 30 who undergo Tommy John surgery see an average drop of 5.8% in fastball velocity and a 0.35 increase in ERA in their first season back. Given deGrom’s age and injury ledger, it is plausible that he returns as a mid-rotation starter rather than a Cy Young-level ace. The Rangers will need to decide if they want to bet on that outcome or use his contract as a tool to offload salary in a rebuild.

For other teams evaluating a player with a similar injury profile, deGrom’s career serves as a cautionary tale. Talent can buy a team a few years of dominance, but it cannot buy durability. The Mets arguably got the best of deGrom between 2014 and 2019, but they paid a heavy price in the subsequent years as his availability dwindled. The Rangers took a calculated risk that is now costing them both money and opportunity cost. In an era where teams are increasingly prioritizing health and innings over pure stuff, deGrom represents the extreme case of a franchise-altering talent whose body simply could not hold up.

Conclusion

Jacob deGrom’s injury history has created a unique tension between his extraordinary talent and the practical realities of team building. When he is on the mound, he can beat any lineup in the world. But the rare moments he is healthy have become increasingly scarce, forcing his teams to invest heavily in insurance, backup plans, and roster flexibility. For the Mets, deGrom’s injuries derailed what could have been a dynasty; for the Rangers, the gamble is still underway. The broader lesson for Major League Baseball is that elite pitching is inherently fragile, and that even the most dominant arm can become a liability when it cannot be counted on to take the ball every fifth day. DeGrom’s legacy will be that of a generational talent whose career was defined as much by what might have been as by what he achieved—a reminder that in baseball, availability often trumps ability.