The Timberwolves' Path Through the NBA Draft Lottery

The Minnesota Timberwolves, a franchise that entered the NBA in 1989, have frequently found themselves in the lottery's orbit. Their history reveals a blend of misfortune, fortune, and strategic adaptation to the league's evolving draft system. From the pre-lottery era to the current flattened odds, the team's approach to acquiring top talent has been shaped by rule changes, management decisions, and a bit of luck. This article explores how the Timberwolves navigated the draft lottery system over the decades, examining key picks, rule shifts, and the long-term impact on the franchise.

Understanding the Draft Lottery: A Brief Overview

The NBA instituted the draft lottery in 1985 to deter teams from intentionally losing games to secure the first overall pick. Initially, only the teams that missed the playoffs participated, and the lottery determined the top three picks. Over time, the NBA tweaked the odds to balance competitive equality. The 2019 reform, often called the "flattened system," increased the number of teams with a chance at the top pick and reduced the incentive for outright tanking. For a team like the Timberwolves, which has missed the playoffs more often than not, these changes directly impacted their rebuild strategies.

The Early Years: From Expansion to Lottery Stalemates

Minnesota entered the league with modest expectations. As an expansion franchise, they received the eighth overall pick in 1989, selecting Pooh Richardson. In the early 1990s, the team consistently finished near the bottom, granting them high lottery positions. Yet they often missed out on the top selection. In 1990, they had the sixth pick (Felton Spencer); in 1991, the seventh (Luc Longley); and in 1992, they finally landed the third pick, taking Christian Laettner. The lottery odds were then weighted heavily toward the worst teams, but the Timberwolves rarely won the coin flips or jumped into the top two.

The 1992 lottery was particularly frustrating: Minnesota had the worst record in the league, giving them the best chance at the first pick. However, they dropped to third, while Orlando, with the 11th-best odds, won the lottery and selected Shaquille O'Neal. This pattern of high hopes and disappointing lottery results would become a recurring theme.

The Kevin Garnett Gambit: A Rare Lottery Triumph

Everything changed in 1995. The Timberwolves finished the previous season with a 21‑61 record, the league's worst, but again lost the lottery, falling to the fifth pick. But the draft class was deep, and Minnesota made a bold decision: they selected high school phenom Kevin Garnett with the fifth overall pick. While not a lottery win in the traditional sense, the pick transformed the franchise. Garnett became an MVP, led the Timberwolves to the playoffs in his second season, and eventually to the Western Conference Finals in 2004. The 1995 draft showed that landing a superstar doesn't always require the first pick—if the scouting and development are top-notch.

However, that pick was not without controversy. The Timberwolves reportedly entered a pre-draft agreement with Garnett's agent, promising to select him at No. 5, but only if he signed a massive rookie contract. The NBA investigated for cap circumvention, eventually fining the team and stripping them of future first-round picks. This punishment set back the franchise for years, limiting their ability to add talent around Garnett.

The Post-KG Era: Rebuilding Through the Lottery

After Garnett's prime, the Timberwolves slipped back into the lottery. From 2005 to 2014, they finished outside the playoffs ten times, earning a string of high picks. The 2007 lottery gave them the seventh pick (Corey Brewer), 2008 the third (O.J. Mayo, traded for Kevin Love), and 2009 the fifth (Ricky Rubio) and sixth (Jonny Flynn). The 2009 draft was especially pivotal: the Timberwolves had two lottery picks but missed out on Stephen Curry (drafted seventh by Golden State) and instead took two point guards—both of whom had shorter careers than expected. This era illustrated that lottery success is not just about getting picks, but about making the right selections.

In 2011, the Timberwolves again held the second overall pick, taking Derrick Williams. The pick underwhelmed, and the team continued to struggle. The 2012 lottery saw them drop to the 18th pick (Damian Lillard was gone by then), but they did secure a future star via the Kevin Love trade with Cleveland in 2014. That trade netted them Andrew Wiggins, the 2014 first overall pick, and eventually led to Karl-Anthony Towns via the 2015 lottery.

The Towns–Wiggins Era and the 2015 Lottery Win

The 2015 NBA Draft Lottery was a turning point. The Timberwolves had the league's worst record (16-66) but only a 25% chance of winning the first pick. The odds under the pre-)2019 system heavily favored the worst team, but it was never guaranteed. This time, luck favored Minnesota: they secured the No. 1 pick and selected Karl-Anthony Towns, a generational big man. Towns became Rookie of the Year, a four-time All-Star, and the cornerstone of the franchise. Combined with Wiggins (acquired via trade but off a lottery pick), the Timberwolves seemed poised for long-term success.

Yet the pairing never fully gelled. Wiggins plateaued, and the team struggled to build a winning culture. In 2017, they made the playoffs as the eighth seed, only to be eliminated in the first round. The lottery system gave them talent, but roster construction, coaching changes, and front-office instability undermined the rebuild.

The 2019 Lottery Reform and Its Impact on Minnesota

The NBA's 2019 rule change flattened the lottery odds, reducing the difference between the worst team (now a 14% chance at the top pick) and the teams just outside the playoffs. The intent was to discourage extreme tanking. For the Timberwolves, who were often in the bottom five, the new system meant a lower probability of securing the first pick but a higher chance of staying in the top three if they didn't finish last.

In 2019, Minnesota had the 11th-best lottery odds (only 2% chance at No. 1) but jumped to the sixth pick, selecting Jarrett Culver—a swing that missed. However, in 2020, the Timberwolves again landed the first overall pick after finishing with the third-worst record. Under the new odds, the worst team only had a 14% chance, but the third-worst team had a 14% as well (since the odds are flattened, the top three have identical 14% chances). Minnesota struck gold again, taking Anthony Edwards, who emerged as an All-Star and the face of the franchise. This was a direct benefit of the new system: a team that wasn't the absolute worst still had a realistic shot at the top prize.

The 2021 lottery added another twist: Minnesota owed their first-round pick to Golden State as part of the D'Angelo Russell trade, but it was protected 1-3. They fell to the sixth pick, which conveyed to the Warriors. That protection, however, meant they kept the pick if it landed in the top three—a risk that paid off when the lottery gods smiled on them. In 2022, the Timberwolves made a blockbuster trade for Rudy Gobert, sending multiple picks to Utah. That trade depleted their future lottery assets, but it signaled a shift from rebuilding to contending.

Current Roster and the Lottery's Lingering Influence

Today's Timberwolves, led by Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Rudy Gobert, are a direct product of the draft lottery system. Edwards (2020 first overall), Towns (2015 first overall), and even role players like Jaden McDaniels (2020 first-round pick via a trade) came from lottery selections. The 2019 reform gave them the chance to land Edwards without tanking to the very bottom—they finished with the third-worst record, not the worst. That nuance matters: front offices now can balance competitiveness with positioning, as outright tanking no longer guarantees the top pick.

The Timberwolves' ability to acquire talent through the lottery has been uneven. They struck gold with Garnett (No. 5), Towns (No. 1), and Edwards (No. 1), but missed on picks like Derrick Williams (No. 2), Jonny Flynn (No. 6), and Jarrett Culver (No. 6). The team's recent success—reaching the Western Conference Finals in 2024—rests heavily on those lottery hits. As the franchise moves forward, the draft lottery will remain a key variable, especially if injuries or regression force a rebuild. The NBA's rules continue to evolve, with the current system expected to stay intact for the near future.

Strategic Tanking vs. Competitive Integrity

The Timberwolves have never been shy about strategic losing. After Garnett's departure in 2007, they endured a 15-67 season in 2008-09, tying for the worst record. That campaign yielded the fifth and sixth picks, but the franchise later admitted that the "brutal" season was necessary to secure high picks. The 2019 rule change was meant to reduce such extremes, yet teams still jockey for position. Minnesota's 2019-20 season, which ended with the second-worst record, was partly driven by an effort to keep their pick (it was the same season Edwards joined). The lottery's randomness, however, means no amount of tanking guarantees the top pick.

The Timberwolves' lottery history also includes strong drafts beyond the first round. In 2013, they found Jimmy Butler with the 30th pick (via a trade), but Butler's departure later triggered a rebuild. The team's scouting department has had mixed results, but the lottery picks have provided a lifeline for a small-market team that rarely attracts star free agents. Without the draft lottery, the Timberwolves might never have landed Garnett, Towns, or Edwards—players who defined eras for the franchise.

Notable Lottery Years in Detail

Below is a summary of key Timberwolves lottery picks and how they fared:

  • 1992 (3rd pick) – Christian Laettner. A two-time All-Star in Minnesota, but not the franchise savior fans hoped for after the worst record.
  • 1995 (5th pick) – Kevin Garnett. Historic success; the lottery's randomness gave them a chance, but shrewd scouting sealed the deal.
  • 2007 (7th pick) – Corey Brewer. Role player; never became a star.
  • 2008 (3rd pick) – O.J. Mayo (traded for Kevin Love). Love became an All-Star and eventual trade chip for Wiggins.
  • 2009 (5th and 6th picks) – Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn. Rubio was a fan favorite; Flynn flamed out. Missed on Stephen Curry (No. 7) and DeMar DeRozan (No. 9).
  • 2011 (2nd pick) – Derrick Williams. A bust relative to draft position.
  • 2015 (1st pick) – Karl-Anthony Towns. Franchise-altering talent.
  • 2020 (1st pick) – Anthony Edwards. Another cornerstone, now the team's best player.
  • 2023 (No first-round pick; traded away) – The Gobert trade cost them future picks, but the immediate success justified the risk.

The Timberwolves have also traded away lottery picks, most famously the 2014 No. 1 pick they used to acquire Kevin Love (though Love was already a Timberwolf via trade). Each decision demonstrates how the draft lottery interacts with front-office strategy.

The Future: Navigating the Lottery in a New Era

With Anthony Edwards signed to a supermax extension and Towns still in his prime, the Timberwolves are currently a contender. But the NBA's labor landscape and draft rules could shift. The league has discussed further flattening of lottery odds or even a tournament-style format for drafts. For Minnesota, maintaining a competitive roster means avoiding the lottery altogether. However, if injuries or chemistry issues arise, the front office must decide whether to "tread water" or aggressively tank. The lottery's unpredictability makes that decision a gamble.

The Timberwolves' front office, led by president of basketball operations Tim Connelly, has shown a willingness to trade future picks for present success. That approach reduces reliance on the lottery, but it also removes a safety net. If the Gobert trade ages poorly, the team may find itself in the lottery again, but without its own picks to rebuild. The next few years will test whether the lottery can continue to deliver for a franchise that has always needed it.

In conclusion, the Minnesota Timberwolves' relationship with the NBA draft lottery is a saga of high stakes, mixed outcomes, and adaptation. From the early heartbreaks of the 1990s to the joy of landing Kevin Garnett, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Anthony Edwards, the lottery has been both a lifeline and a source of frustration. The 2019 rule change reshaped their recent drafts and helped them land Edwards, the current face of the franchise. As the NBA considers further tweaks, the Timberwolves will continue to navigate this complex system with the hope that the ping-pong balls bounce their way one more time. For more on the official lottery rules, you can refer to NBA's draft lottery explanation and for a historical breakdown of past lotteries, see Basketball Reference's lottery results. The Timberwolves' story is a testament to the lottery's power to transform—or trap—a franchise, depending on how the chips fall.