The Analytics Revolution That Changed Pitching—And How deGrom Stayed Ahead

In the modern game of Major League Baseball, two metrics have fundamentally altered how pitchers are evaluated and how they attack hitters: launch angle and exit velocity. Jacob deGrom, a two-time Cy Young Award winner and one of the most dominant arms of his generation, has not only survived this shift but has used it to refine an already elite arsenal. While many pitchers have struggled to adapt to an era where hitters optimize swing paths for maximum damage, deGrom’s approach serves as a masterclass in evolution.

DeGrom’s success is not accidental. It is the product of deliberate adjustments in pitch design, sequencing, and movement patterns that directly counter the very metrics the modern hitter relies on. By understanding how launch angle and exit velocity data feeds back into pitching strategy, deGrom has maintained an edge even as the league-wide strikeout rate climbs and the home run rate fluctuates. This article explores the specific mechanical and tactical changes deGrom has made, the underlying physics that make them effective, and what other pitchers can learn from his approach.

What Launch Angles and Exit Velocities Mean for Pitchers Today

Before examining deGrom’s adaptations, it is essential to grasp why these two metrics matter so much in the current landscape. Launch angle measures the vertical angle at which the ball leaves the bat—typically, a launch angle between 10 and 25 degrees produces line drives and home runs, while angles below 10 degrees yield ground balls and angles above 25 degrees produce pop-ups or weak fly balls. Exit velocity is the speed of the ball off the bat; higher exit velocities (over 95 mph) dramatically increase the probability of extra-base hits and home runs.

The combination of high exit velocity and optimal launch angle is the modern hitter’s holy grail. Pitchers who allow hard contact in the air give up more damage per batted ball than ever before. DeGrom’s goal is to force weak contact—low exit velocity—or to induce launch angles that fall outside the sweet spot. His arsenal is designed around limiting barrel percentage (the rate at which hitters achieve optimal launch angle and exit velocity). Since 2018, deGrom has consistently ranked among the league leaders in lowest barrel rate against, a direct result of his pitch-level adjustments.

For a deeper dive into how Statcast metrics have reshaped pitcher evaluation, see the MLB.com article on exit velocity and launch angle definitions.

Pitch Design Evolution: From Raw Power to Engineered Movement

When deGrom debuted in 2014, his fastball sat in the mid-90s with natural life. Over the following years, his velocity climbed to elite levels—routinely touching 100–102 mph—but raw speed alone became less effective as hitters trained to catch up to heat. The advent of pitch design labs and high-speed cameras allowed pitchers and coaches to break down spin axis, induced vertical break, and horizontal movement with unprecedented precision. DeGrom embraced this environment.

High-Spin Fastball: The Foundation That Built the Arsenal

DeGrom’s four-seam fastball generates elite spin rates—often in the 2,400–2,500 rpm range, well above the league average. High spin on a four-seamer creates a perceived rise effect (the Magnus force keeps the ball from dropping as much as expected). This “rising” action makes the ball appear to jump through the zone, causing hitters to swing under it or miss entirely. By pairing elite spin with extreme velocity, deGrom turns what could be a hittable pitch into one that induces whiffs and weak pop-ups. In 2021, opponents managed only a .179 batting average and a .273 slugging percentage against his fastball.

The spin axis of deGrom’s fastball is also notable. Unlike some hard throwers whose pitches have significant lateral movement, deGrom’s four-seamer has nearly pure backspin, translating into exceptional vertical carry. This makes it particularly effective up in the zone—a location where hitters often try to elevate the ball for power. By attacking a hitter’s preferred launch angle zone with a pitch that appears to defy gravity, deGrom disrupts the timing and plane of the swing.

Slider and Changeup: Tailored Movement to Counter Extreme Swings

If the fastball is the setup pitch, deGrom’s slider is the finishing blow. Historically a mid-80s pitch with modest break, his slider has evolved into a high-spin, sharp-breaking weapon that generates swings and misses at an elite rate. In 2022, before injuries limited his season, deGrom’s slider had a whiff rate nearing 60%—among the best for any pitcher with that pitch type. The secret lies in the combination of tilt and velocity: the slider now averages around 90–92 mph with heavy downward and glove-side movement. This vertical drop makes it nearly impossible for hitters to lift the ball, and the resulting launch angles are typically ground balls or weakly hit choppers.

Equally important is deGrom’s changeup, a pitch he has developed over the past several seasons to give hitters a completely different look. The changeup operates at 89–91 mph with significant fade (horizontal movement) and some sink. By adding this pitch, deGrom forces hitters to respect a third speed and movement profile, further destabilizing their timing and ability to square the ball up. The changeup also plays off the fastball’s high spin: because the changeup has lower spin yet similar arm speed and release, hitters often commit to the fastball and end up swinging early, producing weak contact or swings and misses.

A detailed breakdown of deGrom’s pitch movement can be found in this analysis by FanGraphs, which tracks his pitch values over time.

Mechanical Refinements: Consistency Through Repetition and Recovery

While pitch design is crucial, deGrom’s ability to execute those pitches with repeatable mechanics is what makes the data work in practice. Over his career, deGrom has made subtle but critical adjustments to his delivery that improve pitch command and reduce injury risk—even as his velocity has increased.

Lower Half Drive and Arm Slot Consistency

One of the hallmarks of deGrom’s mechanics is how efficiently he uses his lower half. He generates significant power from his back leg and hips, transferring energy through a relatively compact arm path. This not only contributes to his velocity but also allows him to repeat his release point across all pitches. Consistency of release point is paramount for maintaining deception—if a hitter can identify the pitch type by a subtle change in arm slot, the advantage shifts to the batter. DeGrom’s delivery, with a slot just above three-quarters, produces nearly identical release points for his fastball, slider, and changeup, a key reason why his pitches are so hard to distinguish.

Since 2019, deGrom has also slightly shortened his arm action to improve timing and reduce unnecessary stress on his shoulder and elbow. This has been a double-edged sword in his career, as he has dealt with multiple injuries, but when healthy, his mechanics are a model of efficiency. The shortened path allows him to maintain velocity late into games and to locate pitches with precision—both of which are critical when trying to limit exit velocity.

Pitch Sequencing: Disrupting the Hitter’s Predictive Model

Modern hitters rely heavily on predictive models built from scouting reports and Statcast data. They look for patterns in pitch usage, count tendencies, and location preferences. DeGrom and his catchers (notably Francisco Álvarez in recent seasons) have developed sequences that deliberately subvert those expectations. For example, deGrom might start a left-handed hitter with a back-foot slider early in the count, then follow with a high fastball—a sequence that attacks both the hitter’s ability to cover the outer half and their timing for an elevated pitch. Against righties, he might throw a first-pitch changeup to steal a strike and plant the idea that a soft pitch is in play, only to blow a 100-mph fastball by them on 0-1.

The underlying principle is to suppress the hitter’s ability to generate hard hit balls with an ideal launch angle. By mixing speeds, locations, and movement profiles, deGrom keeps hitters from timing the velocity zone and adjusting their swing plane. This is especially effective against hitters who prioritize pull-side power—a common trade-off in the launch-angle era. DeGrom’s ability to work both inside and outside, up and down, means he can attack the edges of the strike zone without creating predictable patterns.

To learn more about how pitch sequencing affects barrel rate and expected wOBA, check out this MLB.com piece on countering launch angle trends.

The Feedback Loop of Statcast Data in deGrom’s Approach

One of the most underappreciated aspects of deGrom’s adaptation is how he uses real-time data to make in-game adjustments. With teams now having access to live Statcast data in the dugout, pitchers can review exit velocities and launch angles of batted balls between innings—or even after each at-bat. DeGrom has reportedly leaned into this, paying close attention to how hitters are reacting to his pitches and whether they are undercutting the ball (indicating they are trying to lift it) or rolling over (trying to pull).

For instance, if a hitter consistently manages a launch angle in the sweet spot against a certain pitch, deGrom might abandon that offering in favor of a different one for the remainder of the game. This kind of real-time adaptation requires both a deep understanding of the underlying data and the ability to execute different pitches on demand. DeGrom’s command is so precise that he can make these adjustments without sacrificing location or velocity. This separates him from many other power pitchers who rely on a single dominant pitch and lack the command to fine-tune their approach mid-game.

In a 2021 interview, deGrom mentioned that he looks at the quality of contact rather than just strikeouts when evaluating his own performance. He understands that even a strikeout can be preceded by a hard-hit foul ball that indicates a hitter is timing him well. By adjusting his pitch mix based on contact quality, he has maintained a lower xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) than many of his peers over the past five seasons.

Injury Management and Longevity: The Unspoken Variable

No discussion of deGrom’s pitching adaptations would be complete without addressing the elephant in the room: injuries. Since 2021, deGrom has spent significant time on the injured list with forearm, shoulder, and elbow issues. The irony is that his velocity and spin rates have not declined—if anything, they have risen—but the physical toll of generating maximum effort on nearly every pitch has taken a toll. This raises an important question about the sustainability of his approach.

DeGrom’s response in 2023 and 2024 has been to alter his offseason training and in-season workload management. He has worked with the Texas Rangers’ training staff on reducing stress on the ulnar collateral ligament through specific strengthening exercises, while also incorporating more long-toss and weighted-ball work to maintain arm health. Additionally, deGrom has made a conscious effort to avoid overthrowing early in games, saving maximum velocity for high-leverage spots. This subtle change in effort distribution may help prolong his career while still keeping his elite stuff when it matters most.

The tension between wanting to dominate with overpowering stuff and staying healthy is a central theme in today’s game. Many of the hardest-throwing pitchers face similarly high injury risks. DeGrom’s ability to remain effective even when slightly dialed back (he still averages 98–99 mph in his reduced-effort phases) is a testament to the depth of his arsenal. He can rely on his secondaries more when his fastball is not at peak velocity, and his changeup-slider combination is still deadly even at 95–96 mph.

For context on how the Rangers have managed deGrom’s rehab and return, see this report from The Dallas Morning News covering his 2024 season plans.

Comparisons to Other Elite Pitchers: What Sets deGrom Apart

To fully appreciate deGrom’s adaptations, it helps to compare him to other ace-level pitchers who have also adjusted to the launch-angle era. For example, Max Scherzer has maintained elite performance by adding a cutter and refining his slider, while Justin Verlander reinvented himself with a four-seamer heavy approach. Both have succeeded, but deGrom’s approach is distinct in its reliance on maximum velocity blended with elite spin and movement.

Unlike Scherzer, who relies on high strikeout totals through deception and pitchability, deGrom often generates whiffs purely on raw stuff. Unlike Verlander, who uses spin to create dramatic fastball life, deGrom’s fastball is more about riding plane than horizontal cut. These differences matter when assessing how different pitchers limit hard contact. deGrom’s barrel rate suppressed is consistently lower than both Scherzer and Verlander over the past three seasons, even after accounting for league normalization. This suggests that his specific combination of traits is particularly effective at preventing the optimal launch angle/high exit velocity marriage that hitters seek.

Younger pitchers like Spencer Strider and Shohei Ohtani have adopted similar philosophies—high spin, extreme velocity, and a wipeout slider—but deGrom dials in the command and sequencing with greater precision. He is also less predictable in count leverage; Strider tends to throw sliders in two-strike counts, whereas deGrom will throw his slider on any count, including first pitch, keeping hitters off balance.

The Role of Catchers and Game Planning

deGrom’s success is not entirely a solo effort. The catcher’s ability to receive and frame the ball, as well as contribute to game planning, cannot be overlooked. During his time with the New York Mets, deGrom worked extensively with catchers like Wilson Ramos, James McCann, and later Francisco Álvarez. Each brought different strengths. Álvarez, in particular, has a strong arm and advanced understanding of swing-and-miss tendencies. By working with a younger, analytics-savvy catcher, deGrom has integrated pregame scouting reports that focus on individual hitter’s launch angle tendencies.

For example, if the scouting report indicates that a hitter struggles with high fastballs (common for hitters who prioritize low launch angles), deGrom will attack up in the zone early. If a hitter tends to chase breaking balls down, deGrom will bury his slider. This targeted game planning, informed by exit velocity and launch angle data, gives deGrom a strategic advantage even before he throws a pitch.

Pitchers and catchers now use tablets to review swing paths and hot zones before games. deGrom reportedly spends extra time with the game plan, verifying that his pitch sequence for each hitter aligns with the data. This meticulous preparation is common among aces but is especially pronounced in deGrom’s approach, given the velocity he works with—a mistake up in the zone to a power hitter can lead to a 110-mph exit velocity launch-angle home run.

Pitch Tunneling and the Illusion of Deception

Another advanced concept that deGrom has mastered is pitch tunneling—the idea that two different pitch types appear to travel on the same path initially before diverging late. This dramatically increases the difficulty for the hitter to differentiate between a fastball and a breaking ball. DeGrom’s fastball and slider, because they share a similar release point and initial trajectory, create a classic tunnel. The hitter sees a fastball release, loads the swing, and then the ball suddenly deviates downward. The result is often a swing over the top of a slider or a miss under the fastball.

Tunneling is not new, but its application based on Statcast data has become more precise. Pitchers now know exactly how many inches of separation they need between pitch types at various distances from home plate to optimize confusion. DeGrom’s natural arm slot and spin characteristics make his tunnel particularly effective. This is one reason why his whiff rate remains elite even as hitters have become better at recognizing spin out of the hand.

For a technical explanation of pitch tunneling and how it breaks down launch angle optimization, refer to this resource from Driveline Baseball.

How deGrom’s Approach Informs Future Pitching Development

The lessons from Jacob deGrom’s evolution are already being applied to younger pitchers across baseball. Prospects are now being taught to prioritize spin rate and vertical movement over sheer power, with the understanding that even a 95-mph fastball can be hittable if it lacks ride and tunnel. deGrom’s success has validated the idea that elite stuff plus elite command of that stuff is the ultimate combination in the launch-angle era.

Organizations like the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians have long embraced velocity-spin hybrids, but the deGrom model—dominant fastball with three above-average secondaries—sets a high bar. Pitch design coaches now work with high school and college pitchers to develop a similar profile: high spin four-seamer, a breaking ball with depth, and a changeup with fade. DeGrom’s willingness to adapt over multiple seasons, refining his slider and adding the changeup, shows that even the best must continue to evolve. In this sense, he is a role model not just for his current dominance but for his commitment to staying ahead of the analytical curve.

Looking ahead, the next frontier may involve even more nuanced data—such as how hitters adjust their swing plane based on pitch height, or how spin axis affects contact quality differently for lefties and righties. deGrom, by working closely with the Rangers’ analytics department, is likely already incorporating some of these advanced metrics into his game planning. Whether he can stay healthy enough to remain effective into his late 30s remains an open question, but his intellectual approach to pitching will keep him relevant.

Conclusion: The Blueprint for Pitching in the Statcast Era

Jacob deGrom’s career trajectory is a powerful case study in adaptation. When launch angles and exit velocities began to reshape the offensive landscape, many pitchers failed to adjust—their fastballs became batting practice, their curveballs were left hanging, and their command eroded. deGrom, by contrast, used the data to refine what was already excellent. He increased his fastball spin, sharpened his slider, developed a legitimate changeup, and learned to sequence pitches in ways that directly counter the strengths of modern hitters.

The results are clear: even in an era where the average fastball is harder than ever, deGrom’s ability to limit barrel contact and induce weak fly balls sets him apart. His 1.8–2.0 FIP seasons are not anomalies but achievements born of deliberate, data-informed adjustments. For any pitcher—from a rising prospect to a veteran looking to extend their career—deGrom’s path offers a roadmap. Embrace the metrics, but don’t drown in them. Focus on pitch design that defeats the hitter’s swing plane. Prioritize command and tunneling over raw velocity alone. And never stop evolving. In the modern game, standing still is the same as moving backward.

As the launch-angle revolution continues, pitchers who fail to adapt will be left behind. Jacob deGrom, however, has shown that the human arm—armed with the right data and the determination to apply it—can still dominate baseball’s hardest-hitting era.