Jacob deGrom’s Place Among Cy Young Legends

Jacob deGrom has redefined pitching dominance in the modern era. Since his debut in 2014, the New York Mets right‑hander has amassed a résumé that invites direct comparison with the most decorated Cy Young Award winners in baseball history. His combination of elite velocity, pinpoint command, and staggering strikeout rates has drawn praise from analysts and peers alike. By measuring deGrom’s key statistics against those of other multiple‑time Cy Young winners—and against single‑season peak performances—we can assess where he truly stands in the pantheon of greats.

What sets deGrom apart is not just his raw numbers but the context in which he achieved them. Offense has fluctuated across eras, and the analytical revolution has changed how we evaluate pitchers. Wins, once the gold standard, have given way to more precise metrics such as Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and Wins Above Replacement (WAR). This article examines deGrom’s career stats against a curated group of Cy Young winners—Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Pedro Martínez, Randy Johnson, and Greg Maddux—using both traditional and advanced measures.

Traditional Statistics: Wins, ERA, Strikeouts, and WHIP

Wins

Wins remain a divisive stat, heavily dependent on run support. deGrom has 82 career wins through 2024 (with parts of two seasons lost to injury). Compare that to Justin Verlander (262 wins), Clayton Kershaw (212), Max Scherzer (216), and Greg Maddux (355). In pure volume, deGrom lags far behind because of shortened seasons and limited team success. However, his 2018 season—when he went 10‑9 with a 1.70 ERA—underscores how win totals can misrepresent dominance. Among Cy Young winners, only deGrom has posted a sub‑2.00 ERA twice while failing to reach 12 wins in either season.

To put his win rate in context: deGrom’s career winning percentage (.543) is lower than Kershaw (.683), Verlander (.651), Scherzer (.646), and Pedro Martínez (.687). Yet during his peak (2018‑2021), his ERA was far lower than any of those peers over the same span. Wins simply do not capture his true impact.

Earned Run Average (ERA)

ERA is where deGrom excels. His career mark of approximately 2.53 through 2024 ranks among the best for any pitcher with at least 1,400 innings pitched since 1920. Among the Cy Young winners in our group:

  • Jacob deGrom – 2.53
  • Clayton Kershaw – 2.48
  • Justin Verlander – 3.30
  • Max Scherzer – 3.14
  • Pedro Martínez – 2.93
  • Randy Johnson – 3.29
  • Greg Maddux – 3.16

Only Kershaw has a slightly lower ERA, and he has thrown nearly 1,000 more innings. deGrom’s ERA+ (adjusted for ballpark and league) is an incredible 150, meaning he has been 50% better than league average over his career—a figure that places him alongside the all‑time elite. In his Cy Young seasons (2018, 2019), his ERA+ was 218 and 176 respectively, among the highest single‑season marks ever recorded.

Strikeouts

Strikeout power is a hallmark of deGrom’s game. He has 1,640 strikeouts in 1,397 innings, a rate of 10.6 K/9. Among the group:

  • Randy Johnson – 4,875 strikeouts, 10.6 K/9
  • Pedro Martínez – 3,154 strikeouts, 10.0 K/9
  • Max Scherzer – 3,367 strikeouts, 10.3 K/9
  • Justin Verlander – 3,393 strikeouts, 9.3 K/9
  • Clayton Kershaw – 2,952 strikeouts, 9.3 K/9
  • Jacob deGrom – 1,640 strikeouts, 10.6 K/9

While total strikeouts are lower due to fewer innings, deGrom’s K/9 rate ties Randy Johnson for the highest among the group. That rate has been even more extreme in recent seasons: from 2020 to 2023, deGrom consistently posted K/9 above 11.5, peaking at 14.3 in his abbreviated 2020 season. No other pitcher in history has maintained a career K/9 above 11 in more than 600 innings, except for a handful of relievers.

WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched)

WHIP is a direct measure of a pitcher’s ability to limit baserunners. deGrom’s career WHIP is 1.00, exactly. Among the comparative group:

  • Jacob deGrom – 1.00
  • Clayton Kershaw – 1.00
  • Pedro Martínez – 1.05
  • Greg Maddux – 1.14
  • Max Scherzer – 1.08
  • Justin Verlander – 1.11
  • Randy Johnson – 1.17

Again, deGrom sits at the very top alongside Kershaw. His ability to work with small margins—especially during his injury‑shortened seasons—reflects extraordinary command. In 2021, his WHIP was 0.55 through the first half, a figure that seemed almost unreal before a forearm strain ended his season. That half‑season WHIP is the lowest for any starting pitcher in the modern era (minimum 90 innings).

Advanced Metrics: FIP, WAR, and Rate Stats

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

FIP isolates what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, and home runs. deGrom’s career FIP is 2.55, again bested only by Kershaw (2.48) among active multi‑time winners. Pedro Martínez posted a 2.91, Randy Johnson 3.15, and Verlander 3.31. deGrom’s elite FIP indicates that his ERA is not inflated by poor defense or lucky sequencing—he genuinely suppresses damage.

In his peak four‑year stretch (2018‑2021), deGrom had a FIP of 2.03, the best in baseball over that span by a wide margin. The next closest (Scherzer) was at 2.78. That difference is historically significant: only a few seasons in history (Pedro’s 2000, Gibson’s 1968) have matched that level of dominance.

Wins Above Replacement (WAR)

Baseball‑Reference WAR and Fangraphs WAR give slightly different numbers, but both paint a clear picture. deGrom’s 44.6 bWAR (through 2024) ranks behind Kershaw (81.2), Verlander (82.1), Scherzer (74.8), Maddux (106.5), Johnson (101.1), and Martínez (83.8). The main reason is volume: deGrom has thrown only about 1,400 innings, while the others all exceeded 2,500 (most over 3,000). On a per‑inning basis, deGrom’s WAR per 200 innings is extraordinary—roughly 6.4 bWAR per 200 IP, which eclipses every other pitcher in the group (Kershaw is 6.0, Pedro 5.6, Maddux 5.5). If deGrom had aged normally and stayed healthy, his career WAR would likely approach or surpass the 70‑80 range.

In terms of single‑season WAR, deGrom’s 2018 (8.8 bWAR) and 2021 (8.2 bWAR in just 146 innings) are among the highest in history for a pitcher. Only Pedro’s 2000 (9.7) and a few other seasons (Koufax 1965, Gibson 1968) exceed them. The fact that deGrom produced such numbers in a high‑offense era adds weight to the argument.

K/BB Ratio

Control is often overlooked. deGrom’s career K/BB is 5.7, again tied with Kershaw for best among the group. Pedro (4.3), Maddux (3.4), and Scherzer (4.1) trail. A ratio above 5.0 is considered elite; above 6.0 is generational. deGrom has exceeded 6.0 in three of his last four healthy seasons.

Peak vs. Longevity: The Core Debate

The central tension in evaluating deGrom is his limited durability. He has thrown 200 innings only once (2018, 217 IP). Compare that to Verlander (nine seasons of 200+ IP), Kershaw (seven), Scherzer (seven), Maddux (sixteen), and Johnson (nine). Injuries—specifically to his right forearm, elbow, and shoulder—have truncated his seasons repeatedly since 2020. In 2021, he was on pace for a historic campaign but was shut down after 92 innings. In 2022, he made just 11 starts before a shoulder issue ended his season. In 2023, he missed most of the year recovering from Tommy John surgery (performed in June 2023).

This fragility means that despite his otherworldly per‑inning stats, deGrom will never approach the cumulative totals of the all‑time greats. Cy Young voters and Hall of Fame selectors often value longevity. However, the question is whether his peak is so high that it compensates for missing bulk years.

Consider this: from 2018 through 2021, deGrom made 66 starts and pitched 387 innings. Over that stretch, his ERA was 1.94, his FIP 2.03, and his K/9 11.9. The only comparable four‑year runs in the last 50 years are Pedro’s 1997‑2000 (ERA 2.07, K/9 11.9) and Randy Johnson’s 1999‑2002 (ERA 2.53, K/9 12.3). Neither of those pitchers dealt with the same level of early‑career injury interruptions, but deGrom’s numbers sit right beside them.

Context of Era: Adjusting for Offense and Stadiums

Modern baseball has seen a rise in strikeouts, but also a rise in home runs. The so‑called “juiced ball” era (2015‑2019) inflated ERAs across the league. deGrom pitched through that period and still maintained a 2.10 ERA from 2015‑2019. By contrast, Randy Johnson’s peak came during the steroid era (late 1990s‑early 2000s), where offense was at historic highs. Johnson’s 2.37 ERA from 1999‑2004 is comparable, but he had the advantage of facing pitcher‑friendly parks in Seattle and Arizona. deGrom pitches half his games in Citi Field, which is slightly pitcher‑friendly but not extreme.

Pedro Martínez’s 2000 season at Fenway Park—a notorious hitter’s park—produced a 1.74 ERA, arguably the greatest single season ever. deGrom’s 2018 (1.70 ERA) is statistically similar, though it came in 117 fewer innings. Adjusted for park and league, both seasons are nearly identical by ERA+ (218 for deGrom, 212 for Pedro).

Clayton Kershaw’s prime (2011‑2017) was in a lower‑offense environment than deGrom’s, particularly from 2014‑2016. Even so, Kershaw’s ERA+ from 2011‑2017 was 169, while deGrom’s from 2018‑2023 was 151 (and would be higher if 2020+ are normalized). The gap is not large, and deGrom’s peak is higher.

Head‑to‑Head: Key Cy Young Peers

Clayton Kershaw

Kershaw is the gold standard for consistency and dominance in the 2010s. His three Cy Young Awards, MVP, and 81.2 bWAR set him apart. In head‑to‑head rate stats, deGrom matches or slightly exceeds Kershaw in ERA, WHIP, and K/9. However, Kershaw has thrown nearly 2,700 innings—more than double deGrom’s total. Kershaw also has a playoff résumé (including a championship), while deGrom’s only postseason appearance (2015, 2016) was limited. If both stay healthy through age 37, deGrom could approach Kershaw’s career numbers, but that’s far from certain.

Justin Verlander

Verlander’s longevity is remarkable: he won his first Cy Young at age 24 and his second at age 39. His 82.1 bWAR currently leads all active pitchers. In rate stats, deGrom bests Verlander handily (2.53 ERA vs 3.30, 1.00 WHIP vs 1.11). But Verlander’s 3,000+ strikeouts and 260 wins are monuments to durability. The comparison highlights the trade‑off between peak and volume. Verlander’s peak (2011‑2019) was very good (ERA 2.85), but deGrom’s peak is clearly superior. Volume alone puts Verlander in the Hall of Fame; deGrom’s path is less certain.

Max Scherzer

Scherzer’s career is a portrait of relentless aggression. He has three Cy Young Awards and a no‑hitter. deGrom has better ERA, WHIP, and K/BB, but Scherzer has thrown nearly 2,800 innings and struck out 3,367 batters. Scherzer’s 2018 season (2.53 ERA, 220 K in 206 IP) was excellent, but deGrom’s 1.70 ERA that same year clearly outshines it. Scherzer’s competitive spirit and durability have earned him a legacy as a modern workhorse; deGrom may be remembered as a higher‑peak but injury‑prone counterpart.

Pedro Martínez

Pedro’s peak from 1997‑2003 is often cited as the best stretch by any pitcher in history. Over 1,414 innings, he posted a 2.20 ERA, 11.1 K/9, and 0.98 WHIP. deGrom’s 2018‑2021 numbers (1.94 ERA, 11.9 K/9, 0.83 WHIP) are actually better in a slightly higher‑offense environment. Pedro’s advantage is that he maintained that level over nearly 1,500 innings; deGrom only has 387 in his peak. If deGrom had stayed healthy through 2022‑2023, his peak might have rivaled Pedro’s in length, but the injuries prevented it. Pedro also had the 1999 Cy Young and the near‑unanimous 2000 award. deGrom’s two Cy Youngs are deserved, but he lacks the narrative of a dominant stretch winning multiple titles.

Randy Johnson

Johnson’s size and intimidation produced 4,875 strikeouts, a left‑handed record. He won four straight Cy Youngs (1999‑2002). deGrom is better in ERA, WHIP, and K/BB, but Johnson’s K/9 is identical (10.6) over three times the innings. Johnson’s peak ERA (2.37 from 1999‑2002) is higher than deGrom’s peak, but it’s close. The Big Unit’s durability and dominance over a decade give him a clear edge in career value. deGrom, on the other hand, has arguably the best single season (2021) among modern pitchers in terms of per‑inning dominance.

Greg Maddux

Maddux’s legacy is built on control and longevity, not power. He threw 5,000 innings with a 3.16 ERA, but his K/9 was just 5.9. deGrom outperforms him in every rate stat except home run rate (Maddux gave up fewer homers per nine). Maddux’s incredible 355 wins and 106.5 bWAR are far out of deGrom’s reach. The comparison underscores how different the modern game is: Maddux succeeded with precision and defense, deGrom with velocity and strikeouts. Both are elite, but their paths are distinct.

Injury Impact and Future Outlook

deGrom underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2023 and missed the entire 2024 season. He is under contract with the Texas Rangers through 2026 (with an opt‑out). If he returns healthy, he will be 37 years old in 2025. Replicating his pre‑injury performance seems unlikely, but even a fraction of his former self would add valuable counting stats. In the best‑case scenario, deGrom could add another 300‑400 innings and 350‑400 strikeouts, bringing his career totals to around 2,000 strikeouts and 100 wins—still below his peers but more respectable.

History suggests that pitchers returning from Tommy John in their late 30s rarely regain elite form. However, modern medicine has improved success rates. deGrom’s recovery will be closely watched. If he can contribute even 150 high‑quality innings after his return, his legacy as a peak‑dominance pitcher will be secure.

Conclusion: Where deGrom Stands

Jacob deGrom’s career stats compare favorably to the greatest Cy Young winners in history on a per‑inning basis. In ERA, WHIP, K/9, and FIP, he ranks among the top three of any era. His 2018‑2021 peak is arguably the best four‑year stretch of starting pitching in the modern era, rivaling Pedro Martínez and Randy Johnson. However, his inability to stay healthy has prevented him from accumulating the counting numbers (wins, innings, strikeout totals) that define the Hall of Fame careers of Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Greg Maddux.

The debate ultimately hinges on whether you value peak over longevity. Among Cy Young winners, deGrom’s peak is unmatched in the 21st century. His career rate stats are so dominant that even Hall of Fame pitchers like Bob Gibson and Sandy Koufalex showed lower marks in certain categories. Yet the historical voting for awards and Hall induction often rewards sustained excellence. If deGrom never returns to form, he will be remembered as a “what if” story—a generational talent whose body failed him. If he stages a late‑career revival, he could yet push his career totals into the conversation for Cooperstown.

For now, the evidence is clear: Jacob deGrom, when healthy, is as good as any Cy Young winner who ever lived. His statistics, particularly rate stats, already belong in the discussion of the all‑time elite. The only missing piece is the innings. Fans and analysts can only wonder what his career numbers would look like with the durability of a Greg Maddux.

For further reading, explore deGrom’s Baseball‑Reference page here, a deep dive into his peak on FanGraphs, and historical comparisons at Baseball Reference Cy Young Award page. Additional context on WAR can be found at FanGraphs WAR explained.