Understanding WAR and Its Calculation for Pitchers

Wins Above Replacement (WAR) has become the standard metric for comparing player value across positions and eras. For pitchers, WAR estimates the number of wins a pitcher contributes to his team beyond what a freely available replacement-level player would provide. Two main versions dominate public analysis: FanGraphs’ fWAR, which relies on Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) to isolate a pitcher’s skill from defense and luck, and Baseball-Reference’s bWAR, which uses runs allowed per nine innings adjusted for park and opponent quality. While both methods aim to capture true talent, they can diverge significantly when a pitcher experiences extreme batted-ball luck or defensive support. For a complete picture, evaluating both metrics is essential.

The fundamental value of WAR lies in its ability to normalize performance across different run-scoring environments and ballpark dimensions. However, WAR is not without criticism. It tends to reward pitchers who throw more innings, even at a slightly lower per-inning effectiveness, while possibly undervaluing elite relievers and pitchers with extreme platoon splits. Despite these limitations, WAR remains the most widely accepted shorthand for comparing players in the modern statistical landscape. For a detailed primer on the methodology, the FanGraphs Library provides an excellent resource.

Jacob deGrom’s WAR Trajectory

Jacob deGrom debuted in 2014 at age 26 and quickly established himself as a frontline starter. Through the 2023 season, his career bWAR stands at approximately 46.7, with an fWAR around 45.5. These totals are remarkable given that deGrom has thrown only 1,175 innings— significantly fewer than many contemporaries. His rate stats are even more striking: a 2.52 career ERA and 0.99 WHIP place him among the best live-ball era pitchers. WAR reveals a story of extreme peaks punctuated by recurring health struggles.

Peak Seasons (2018–2021)

DeGrom’s finest campaign came in 2018, when he posted a 1.70 ERA, 0.912 WHIP, and 269 strikeouts in 217 innings, earning the NL Cy Young Award. His bWAR that year was 9.6, the highest single-season mark by a pitcher since Roger Clemens’ 10.0 in 1997. FanGraphs credited him with 8.8 fWAR. In 2019, he followed with a 2.43 ERA and 255 strikeouts, good for 7.6 bWAR. The shortened 2020 season saw deGrom post a historic 2.38 ERA with a staggering 14.3 strikeout-per-nine rate, resulting in 3.1 bWAR in only 68 innings (prorated to over 6.0 over a full season). In 2021, he was otherworldly before injuries derailed his second half: a 1.08 ERA and 0.55 WHIP in 92 innings, with 146 strikeouts. That partial season yielded a 4.2 bWAR, again elite on a per-inning basis. These peak seasons are reminiscent of Pedro Martinez’s dominant runs in the late 1990s, where rate stats defined greatness despite modest inning totals.

Injuries and Impact on Cumulative WAR

Despite his dominance, deGrom’s career WAR total is suppressed by frequent stints on the injured list. He missed significant time in 2021, 2022, and 2023 with elbow and shoulder issues. His cumulative WAR through age 35 is comparable to peers who have logged far more innings. For context, Max Scherzer had accumulated roughly 70 bWAR by the same age. This highlights a key limitation of WAR: it rewards longevity, and a pitcher who misses half a season each year will not climb the all-time leaderboards even if his per-inning value is historic. For deGrom, the “what if” question looms large. Had he stayed healthy and sustained his 2018–2021 level for a full decade, he might have challenged the 80–90 WAR milestones reached by the true greats. His injury pattern mirrors that of Sandy Koufax, whose career was cut short but whose seven-year peak ranks among the best ever.

Comparison to Historical Peaks: Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson

No discussion of peak WAR is complete without Pedro Martinez (bWAR 86.0 over his career) and Randy Johnson (bWAR 101.0). Martinez’s best season came in 2000: a 1.74 ERA, 0.737 WHIP, and 11.6 bWAR — the highest single-season pitcher WAR in the live-ball era. DeGrom’s 9.6 pales slightly in comparison, but Martinez threw 217 innings that year. Johnson’s peak (1999–2002) featured WARs of 9.8, 8.1, 6.7, 9.6 — numbers deGrom matched or exceeded in rate but not in volume. The key difference: both Martinez and Johnson accumulated significantly more innings during their peaks, allowing their cumulative WAR to soar. DeGrom’s per-inning dominance may be historically similar, but his body has not allowed the volume required to reach those heights.

Comparative Analysis with Elite Peers

To appreciate deGrom’s standing, it is essential to compare his WAR with other aces of his generation. While deGrom has arguably the highest peak, players like Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, and Corbin Burnes have matched or exceeded him in cumulative value due to superior durability.

Gerrit Cole: The Power-Armed Workhorse

Gerrit Cole, deGrom’s contemporary and fellow ace, has been remarkably durable. Through 2023, Cole’s bWAR stands at 40.6 and his fWAR at 37.1. While these totals are slightly lower than deGrom’s, Cole has thrown over 1,600 career innings, far exceeding deGrom’s 1,175. In individual seasons, Cole’s best bWAR is 8.6 (2019 with the Astros), close to deGrom’s peak but spread over 212.1 innings. Cole’s consistency has kept him in the Cy Young conversation year after year, winning the AL Cy Young in 2023 with a 2.63 ERA and 7.4 bWAR. The comparison illustrates a fundamental tension: do we value peak brilliance or cumulative contribution? DeGrom’s rate stats are superior — his career ERA is nearly a full run lower than Cole’s — but Cole’s ability to take the mound every fifth game has made him a more valuable asset over their overlapping careers. For teams building for contention, Cole’s reliability often tips the scale.

Max Scherzer: The Modern Ironman

Max Scherzer’s career is a testament to sustained excellence. Through 2023, Scherzer has amassed 66.7 bWAR and 69.4 fWAR, totals that place him among the top 25 pitchers in history. He has three Cy Young Awards (2013, 2016, 2017) and multiple seasons with WAR above 7.0. Scherzer’s best season, 2017 with the Nationals, produced an 8.5 bWAR. While his peak numbers do not quite reach deGrom’s 9.6, Scherzer maintained a high level for nearly a decade, including a 6.5 bWAR season at age 37 in 2021. DeGrom, by contrast, has never thrown 250 innings in a season; Scherzer did it five times. If we compare the two during their overlapping prime years (2014–2021), deGrom holds a slight edge in rate stats but falls behind in cumulative WAR. For those who prioritize per-inning dominance, deGrom wins the argument; for volume and durability, Scherzer stands clearly ahead. Scherzer’s longevity also includes elite postseason performance, a context that WAR does not fully capture.

Corbin Burnes: The Emerging Ace

Corbin Burnes burst onto the scene with a dominant 2021 season, winning the NL Cy Young after posting a 2.43 ERA and 0.94 WHIP with 234 strikeouts in 167 innings. His bWAR that year was 7.3, and his fWAR was 6.9. In 2022, Burnes posted a 2.94 ERA and 7.5 bWAR. His cumulative WAR through 2023 stands at about 21.7 bWAR. While Burnes has not yet accumulated the longevity of deGrom, his per-season value is comparable. Burnes relies on a devastating cutter and elite command, leading to walk rates that are among the best in baseball. Importantly, Burnes has been more durable than deGrom in recent years, throwing 202 and 202.2 innings in 2021 and 2022 respectively. If Burnes can sustain his performance into his mid-30s, he could challenge deGrom’s peak levels while surpassing him in career WAR. But for now, deGrom’s superior strikeout and ERA numbers give him the edge in terms of raw dominance.

Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander

No discussion of elite WAR is complete without Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander. Kershaw’s prime (2011–2016) featured WARs of 7.8, 8.3, 8.2, 8.6, 7.5, and 7.7 — consistently better than deGrom’s best seasons. Kershaw’s career bWAR of 81.8 is the highest among active pitchers, and his peak is arguably the best of the 21st century. However, Kershaw’s dominance waned after 2017 due to age and back issues, whereas deGrom’s peak began later. Verlander, a future Hall of Famer, has a career bWAR of 82.1 through 2023, buoyed by two Cy Young Awards and a 2011 MVP. His best single-season WAR is 9.0 (2019), slightly below deGrom’s 9.6. Verlander’s longevity is unmatched: he has thrown over 3,400 innings and produced elite seasons into his late 30s. DeGrom’s per-nine numbers are superior to both Kershaw and Verlander, but his inability to stay healthy prevents him from entering their WAR stratosphere. For a deeper statistical comparison, MLB.com provides an accessible breakdown.

The Significance of WAR in Evaluating Pitchers

WAR provides a useful lens for comparing players, but it is not the final word. One must consider the contexts: deGrom pitched in the NL East, often facing weaker lineups, while Cole has battled in the AL East. Ballpark factors also matter — deGrom’s home park, Citi Field, actually suppressed offense in his peak years, which may have slightly inflated his rate stats relative to a neutral park.

Another criticism of WAR is its treatment of high-quality short seasons. A pitcher who throws only 150 innings but with a 1.50 ERA may have a per-inning WAR higher than a pitcher who throws 250 innings with a 3.00 ERA. Over a full season, the second pitcher may accumulate more total WAR, but which one is more valuable to a team? It depends on the team’s needs and the bullpen depth. For a team fighting for a playoff spot, having a dominant starter who can win every five days might be more impactful than a reliable innings-eater. Additionally, WAR does not directly account for the difficulty of pitching in high-leverage situations or the pressure of October. deGrom has a 1.84 ERA in 8 postseason starts, a small sample but certainly elite. Scherzer and Verlander have extensive postseason experience, and their WAR in October has been historically great. DeGrom’s lack of postseason opportunities (mostly due to the Mets’ failures) means his value in the biggest moments is still unproven at scale.

To better understand the strengths and weaknesses of WAR, consider the following points:

  • Strengths: Normalizes across eras and ballparks; integrates multiple facets of performance into one number; facilitates direct comparisons between pitchers and position players.
  • Limitations: Rewards volume over rate; does not adjust for clutch or postseason context; different versions (fWAR vs bWAR) can give conflicting assessments; may underrate pitchers who excel at inducing weak contact rather than strikeouts.

Despite these caveats, WAR remains the most comprehensive tool available when paired with traditional stats and context. For a deeper dive into the methodology, the Baseball-Reference page for deGrom offers detailed seasonal WAR breakdowns.

Conclusion: deGrom’s Place Among the Elite

Jacob deGrom’s WAR numbers, particularly his peak single-season marks, reinforce his reputation as one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball history. His 2018 season (9.6 bWAR) is among the finest ever by a pitcher, and his 2021 first half was arguably even better. When compared to peers like Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, Corbin Burnes, and the legends Kershaw and Verlander, deGrom stands out for his extraordinary rate statistics and strikeout ability. However, his cumulative WAR lags behind the volume pitchers because injuries have limited his innings. This trade-off between peak and durability is at the heart of any comparative analysis. For those who value the highest level of per-inning dominance, deGrom is in the conversation with the best who ever lived. For those who value total career contribution, he will likely end up outside the top 30 all-time in WAR.

For educators and students learning about sabermetrics, deGrom’s career offers a perfect case study: it illustrates both the power and the limitations of WAR as a summary statistic. By understanding the nuances — peak vs. longevity, context, and methodology — one gains a richer appreciation for evaluating player greatness. As deGrom continues his comeback with the Texas Rangers in 2024, every healthy start adds to the debate. Even if his final WAR total never reaches 60, his impact on the game will be remembered as one of the most electric and dominant stretches the sport has ever witnessed. For a comprehensive look at his career, FanGraphs provides an up-to-date player page with advanced metrics.